Predicted Tropospheric Warming Fails to Occur

Edward Linacre and Bart Geerts wrote here,

“With regard to the upper troposphere, radiosonde and MSU data do not show any warming trend either. Critics of ‘global warming’ (6) interpret the observed absence of upper-tropospheric warming as evidence that climate models are flawed: GCMs forced by a doubled CO2 concentration show strong warming in the upper troposphere. They argue that the observed lack of warming (or slight cooling) is an indication of a negative water-vapour feedback. However, the results of Hansen et al (5), obtained with a model that has a strong positive water-vapour feedback and is driven by measured radiative forcings, are consistent with observed temperature change and indicate that ozone depletion has reduced tropopause warming. If this interpretation is correct, during the next 5-10 years, as ozone-depletion levels out and perhaps reverses, warming of the upper troposphere by well-mixed greenhouse gases should become apparent. The model results indicate good agreement with the observed strong cooling in the lower stratosphere (see MSU data above), which is a result of the greenhouse gas accumulation and, secondarily, of the decrease in stratospheric ozone.” 

Here’s the catch; they wrote that in 1998.

So, it’s been 10 years and we have a chance to falsify their claims.  I don’t have upper tropospheric temperature data, but if mid-tropospheric temperatures aren’t increasing, then we shouldn’t expect upper-tropospheric temperatures to be increasing either.

No warming since 1979, and no warming over the past ten years.

And where we’d really expect to see the warming – in the tropical mid-troposphere:


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