What’s left when you take out ENSO?

Here’s my own temperature record without ENSO (El Nino & La Nina).  I know that this is done by NASA, but I don’t know where to find the data, nor would I completely trust the data if I did.  I could explain how I did it, and if anyone wants to know (apparently there were 21 of you today), make a comment, and I’ll post an explanation.

Here’s what you get when you subtract ENSO from hemispheric lower tropospheric temperature from UAH.  This is NOT a removal of ENSO, because the effect of ENSO lasts beyond the initial event.  Instead this is an indication of what needs to be explained, and ENSO might provide the solution (or part of it).

ENSO and volcanoes are the two largest phenomena that impact global temperatures on short timescales.  I had no real way to take the effect of volcanoes out, though you can use the following graph of lower stratospheric temperatures to see when volcanoes effected temperature (as shown by large stratospheric warming events).

David Stockwell has posted on the theory (not endorsed) that surface temperatures are determined by temperatures in the stratosphere, and that an inverse correlation between surface temperatures and lower stratospheric temperatures is implied by Miskolszi’s semi-transparent model.  He posted a graph comparing the two temperature trends over the past several decades.  While I only have access to lower stratospheric data, it still might be informative to do the same comparison shown on his post with the effects of ENSO removed. 


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