RSS Anomoly Guess

September’s numbers are out from University of Huntsville, and global temperatures rose slightly.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

RSS hasn’t released their data yet, but I’m going to guess that their anomoly will be around 0.25 degrees C (+/- 0.04 C).  This could turn out to be innacurate, but we’ll have to wait to see.  This isn’t a wild guess; I’ll describe how I got there when RSS releases September’s numbers.  When they do, it’ll be here:

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_1.txt

Success! RSS’s September numbers are within my .08 range (0.21-.029), with a 0.211 anomoly.  To predict this I looked at UAH’s and RSS’ relationship (i.e. RSS minus UAH) over the course of several years.  Since 2003, the values of RSS – UAH have been cyclical as I have discussed in other posts, and these cycles have been nearly identical, which would make predicting the monthly value of RSS with the value of UAH relatively easy.  However, this year, the cycle has acted rather differently.  By this September, the difference between RSS and UAH had not yet begun to decrease, so it was apparent that to behave like the other years, it would have to decrease this month.  To decide the magnitude of the change, I looked at the range of magnitudes of decrease in the past few years during the fall.  Apparently, I was a little to conservative in determining the magnitude.

Below is a graph of RSS minus UAH with my guess and with the actual RSS anomoly.

And here is a graph of the the temperature anomoly for UAH and RSS since 2007, with my prediction.

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